Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
